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While we have been bullish on the outlook for stocks for most of the past five years, we are getting more concerned about the short-term outlook for stocks given the growing overall ‘complacency’ among investors. Legendary investor Warren Buffett advises to “be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.” While sometimes it is hard to tell which emotion is dominating the outlook, we do have a series of indicators we use to try to measure the level this overall level of ‘consumer sentiment.’ The problem it brings to our attention is that most of these indicators are currently at very ‘excessive’ levels that have roughly coincided with market tops in the past.
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