Keep connected
Our investment management team is made up of engaged thought leaders. Get their latest commentary and stay informed of their frequent media interviews, all delivered to your inbox.
The phrase “defying gravity” has both a literal and a metaphorical meaning. Focus on the latter and welcome to the 2025 stock market! From the April ‘Liberation Day’ lows, the S&P500 has ripped +33%, adding on +$15 trillion of market value, which is about equivalent to 50% of Gross National Product, notching 26 record highs in the process, a feat only accomplished four other times since 1950. The recovery has not been limited to only the U.S. though, as the MSCI World Index, which tracks stocks across developed and emerging economies, has also hit an all-time high. In another sign of increased risk taking, emerging market stocks have outstripped the global index in 2025, underscored by the stellar performance of junky small caps of late. Valuations are extreme across any measure and sentiment is unapologetically bullish: the most recent bull share in the Investors Intelligence poll rose to 58.5% while the bear camp steadied at 17%, putting us back to more than a +40-percentage-point spread, which in the past was a danger zone. But few seem to see the danger inherent in the herd mentality; fund managers have put an amazing +$58 billion to work in the market through the past week as their cash ratio fast approaches unheard-of lows of 1%.
(more…)