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Global stocks and commodities continued to rally off the December lows in February as the ‘risk on’ trade is fully back in force. While even those with bearish views, such as ourselves, saw that stocks had gotten extremely oversold into the Christmas Eve lows (when we covered most of our short positions and went ‘net long’ the stock market for a short time), stocks have recovered well past our targets and we continue to be amazed at how strongly the market has re-surged from those lows. While the ‘technically oversold’ condition of the market on December 24th set it up for a trading bounce, a few more tailwinds added to the strength of the recovery and then it just started generating upside momentum. What has been even more surprising is how investors seem much more willing to overlook the growing list of negative economic and earnings releases and focus instead on an expected second half recovery in 2019. (more…)